2026 Midterm Elections with Apollo Lupescu
Election season is here, and with it comes plenty of political noise. But for investors, there’s a bigger question: Does it really matter which party wins?
Apollo Lupescu, Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors, recently joined Natalie Picha, Chief Experience Officer and Partner at RHP Wealth Management, to explore what history tells us about elections, market performance, and the risks of letting political emotions influence investment decisions.
What Does History Tell Us?
The numbers might surprise you.
Looking at midterm elections since 1950, Apollo points out that the stock market declined during November in only two midterm election years.
And what about the political party in power?
In an analysis Apollo conducted in 2021, average annual stock market returns during periods of unified Republican and Democratic control of Washington were identical: 14.52%.
As Apollo explains, “When I look at data, I don’t clearly see something that tells me ... one party or another is good or bad for the market.”
Of course, historical returns don’t predict future performance. But they offer an important reminder that political outcomes and market performance aren’t necessarily connected in the ways investors might expect.
Different Election. Same Investing Principles.
Apollo acknowledges that today’s combination of artificial intelligence, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty makes 2026 different from previous election years.
He compares investing to a game of chess. Every game unfolds differently, yet the fundamental rules remain the same.
Markets face new challenges, but companies continue to adapt, innovate, and pursue opportunities.
Natalie offers another familiar analogy: Don’t get off the roller coaster in the middle of the ride.
Reacting to election headlines by moving to cash or making aggressive portfolio changes can undermine an otherwise sound financial plan.
The takeaway? Vote according to your convictions. Invest according to your long-term financial plan.
At RHP Wealth Management, we believe thoughtful planning, diversification, and a disciplined approach to investing matter far more than trying to predict election outcomes.